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Fixing the economy can all be described with one word: Confidence. We need the consumer to be confident enough to make long-term decisions such as purchasing a house for their long-term security. We need businesses to be confident enough to hire workers so that they can expand in the long-run. We need investors confident enough to purchase financial instruments so that banks are confident enough to lend to businesses and consumers. Certainly, the past few years have not been a period of confidence. On the other hand, sometimes events outside our own control give us another perspective. The tragedy beset upon Haiti is of a magnitude that is hard to conceive. Yet, the response of the world to the aid of this small country also is of a magnitude that is hard to conceive.

While we expect major economic powers such as our country to step forward, the realization of this world effort comes from stories of countries such as Norway. Norway, with a population about half the size of New York City, is contributing over $17 million to the cause. The plight of Haiti puts our crisis in perspective. This country knew of their vulnerability to an earthquake, but did not have the financial resources to rebuild. Our problems are many and many have suffered. But we are a great and resilient country and we must have the confidence that we can overcome our issues. Perhaps as we rally around Haiti, it will move us to rally our country out of our own crisis of confidence. We can do so much more for the world if our own economy is stronger. One indication would be a positive preliminary report of economic growth for the fourth quarter. This indicator is just around the corner.

It was interesting to see the media jumping all over the increase in home sales over the last 7 months.

Of course it did, sales always increase in spring and summer. It has been this was for years in good and bad markets.

Now overall our sales are up dramatically here in California which is good. Sales have slowed in the winter months but we are up overall. Finally...

Usually thru the new year people slow down with families and traveling. Things traditionally pick up again starting in Feburary and accelerate from there until about October.

We should get a great boost in sales with the extension of the Fed's tax incentive extension until April 2010.

Prices even had a bit of an upswing in 2009, so it will be interesting to see how it pans out in 2010. I hope the worst is behind us, but if its not, buying or locking in a low rate now still makes the most sense.

Once rates finally do go up, the cost of owning a home will be far higher than a tiny drop in price.

So if you are looking to buy or refi, let us know if we can answer any questions for you.

In December 2009 rates move upward. We have been expecting this for some time now with the volatility in the bond market. Now even if rates move back down at the beginning of this year, there is something to be learned.

--Rates have been at historic lows from 2008 all through 2009.

Due to the Federal Reserve Board lowering short term rates and providing massive amounts of liquidity to the system in the face of the credit crisis. Remember the Fed controls short-term rates. Long-term rates such as rates on home loans are subject to the whims of the markets. As long as the economic news was bad, and it was for most of 2009, the markets stayed in line. Now as the news starts getting better, there is less of a need for the markets to stay in line, and a great chance of rate increases.

Remember, when rates are at historic lows, there is nowhere to go but up.

We are not saying the move we saw in the past few weeks represented a permanent turn in the market. (hopefully not) But eventually that turn will happen. Anyone who is planning a major purchase, from a car to a home, should take note of this fact and act accordingly. Rates are still great, but we don’t know for how long they will stay that way.

2010 is upon us. Are you ready?

The new year brings a few changes in the mortgage market.

The biggest change is the updated disclosure on the Good Faith Estimate.

It is a new multi page form that is designed to allow mortgage clients to easily see the costs and fees associated with the loan.

Certain bank fees and title escrow costs are not allowed to change by more than 10% +/-....

This is an effort to keep transparency of costs to the clients.

It also is supposed to keep shady mortgage brokers honest.

A more important rule to keep mortgage brokers honest is the new rule that they must be licensed, and register with the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System Registry (NMLS+R).

This is a new agency that can monitor mortgage originators to be sure they are not performing any illegal activity, and to discipline them if needed.

FINALLY. This has been needed for the last 10 years and is part of the reason the industry has been so damaged.

Too many mortgage originators had too much freedom and greed.

I think this is all a step in the right direction.

In my 15 years of business, it is great to see some regulation in the mortgage industry.

Hopefully this, along with the tough market will continue to "weed" out the bad guys....

For 2009 the real estate market in California was up overall compared to 2008.

The market is very busy in the under 400,000 price range with many 1st time buyers and investors entering the market. The tax credit really helped too.

The over 400k range has been a bit slower but the drops in value in our area of Tustin Ranch, CA 92782 have not been to bad.

Most of the homes, townhomes, and condos appear to be selling quickly.

The prices are down, but not as bad as some other areas in Orange County.

Also the Government decided to extend the 1st time buyer credit until April, so move fast if you are buying.

They also added a "move up" credit for buyers wanting to upgrade to another home.

All good news.

2010 predictions I have seen:

-Continued improvement in the number of sales and possible gains in value.

-Rates to increase due to inflation pressures.

-Possible 2nd wave of foreclosures coming in the high end market to to Neg Am loan resets.

Who knows what the results will be.

All I know is there is a lot of activity out there.

Let me know what your thoughts are?

Also one of my resolutions for 2010 is to get my blog going.

Let me know what I can do to improve?

Thanks,

Chuck Davis

Mortgage pro in Tustin Ranch, all Orange County, and all Southern California.

Hi,

The FED's extended the 1st time buyer credit until April 2010.

This means you need to get a home in escrow by End of Febuary at the latest.

Also the Realtor payment protection plan was extended too. This protects you in the event of job loss. It makes your house payments for up to 6 months and is free of charge.

Lastly the bottom of the market has surely hit in the lower price ranges.

Foreclosures are harder and harder to come by.

What is your thoughts on the market for 2010?

If you are ready to buy, rates are still low.

Let us know how we can help.

Hello, although the market has been busy for the last few months I have noticed a strange trend.

Many buyers seem to be "on the fence" and not ready to commit.

With the clock ticking on the $8,000 government first time buyer credit and the Free Mortgage protection offered form Realtors, many buyers are waiting.

The most common phrase I hear is: "They say there are more foreclosures coming, so we don't want to buy at too high a price".

Interesting, I wonder where this info is coming from.

Who is "They". Where is the PROOF.

I hope there are a few more foreclosures coming, maybe then there will be some more inventory to sell.

As of now the buyers we have are making multiple offers on homes that have 10 offers the first weekend.

Bring it on, the extra foreclosures will sell at over asking price, and we can still move on.

No one is going to overpay wether its now or in 2 years.

That was already done over the last 5 years....

So wether you buy now or wait, it's still going to be a challenge with lots of competition.

I say buy now while the rates are low...Don't trust the Feds to keep them low.

It's all over the news.

The market is coming back!!!

We have hit bottom.

Have we? I hope so?

Fact is, summers are always busy, so this may just be a glitch.

But I can tell you for sure. ALL of the mortgage and real estate people I know are busy busy busy.

Many of us have been thru this a few times. We all agree that we have definitely hit bottom on the under 400k market.

Higher priced homes are still on the fence.

Many customers ask about the foreclosure moratorium, and the loan mods that are going bad. They think this will reflood the market and cause further price deterioration.

No way!!

There is a waiting list and multiple offers on every property under 400k.

These properties sell for over asking. I saw one last month that sold for 100,000 over asking, and it had 32 offers!!!! (yes it appraised)

Maybe the 400k plus market might take another hit but not the sub 400k.

And even if it does who cares, why wait to save a tiny 10k more on the price if it drops a bit more.

The risk is not worth loosing the guaranteed $8,000 government tax credit, and the FREE mortgage payment protection offered by Realtors. Not to mention what if rates go up, which they WILL. Inflation is knocking at the door.

When rates go up and buyers need to take a 6% instead of 5%, they will pay 10 times more in interest over the life of the loan than what they "saved" by waiting for the 2nd wave of foreclosures.

So what do we do?

Buy now is what I do, and I tell my clients to do.

There is a reason EVERY investor with millions of dollars is buying these homes now. They are experts who have seen this before and they know now is the time.

Just like in the stock market if you try to time the bottom or top of the market, by the time you think its there, you missed it.

Hello,

Just a quick change of pace here to check in with all of my clients and website visitors.

According to my stats there have been over 5,200 recent visitors to my site and blog.

I would like to take this moment to ask what you think about the content, information, articles, etc.

We are firm believers that the customer IS ALWAYS right and we love to hear from those who are using our services.

One of our new services is Financial Advisor analysis. I have a network of great Financial advisors to help answer questions in these troubled times.

Please take a moment to drop us a email or comment on the blog.

I am always available to ask questions too.

No obligation or pressure ever!!!

PS- a news tidbit- The Bond market has been doing well and the mortgage bond experts are expecting rates to get a bit better.